I wanted to share a brief update following the Federal Reserve’s most recent meeting, along with what is currently driving markets and what we’re watching moving forward. In addition to these thoughts, we'll be sharing more perspectives on our 4/8/26 Virtual Market Update and our 4/23/26 in person Market Update. You can learn more about both of those events here: Events
Big Picture: Markets Are Being Driven by Geopolitics
Right now, market movement is less about the Fed and more about global events—particularly tensions in the Middle East. The recent rise in oil prices has been the primary driver of short-term volatility, influencing stock performance, interest rates, and inflation expectations. If tensions escalate further, we could see additional market pressure. Conversely, any signs of de-escalation could lead to a meaningful rebound.
Federal Reserve Update
The Fed did not make any major changes to interest rates. Importantly, Chair Powell emphasized that future decisions will be highly dependent on incoming data, given the current level of uncertainty. While long-term projections were released, even the Fed acknowledged that these are less reliable in today’s environment.
One notable development: the Fed increased its long-term economic growth expectations, suggesting confidence in productivity improvements without signaling the need for higher rates.
Inflation & Economy
Despite short-term concerns tied to oil prices, underlying inflation trends remain more favorable:
Housing costs are stabilizing
A stronger dollar is helping reduce import prices
Productivity gains (including advancements like AI) are expected to be disinflationary over time
The labor market also remains stable overall, with no signs of broad deterioration.
What We’re Watching Next
The June Fed meeting will be an important checkpoint, as it may provide clearer direction depending on how economic data and global events evolve. However, the biggest near-term driver continues to be geopolitical developments and their impact on energy markets.
Investment Perspective
While recent volatility can feel unsettling, it is largely tied to short-term external factors rather than fundamental deterioration. Our approach remains focused on long-term positioning, maintaining diversification, and taking advantage of opportunities that can arise during periods of uncertainty.
Please feel free to reach out if you’d like to discuss how this impacts your portfolio or if you have any questions.
The views stated in this letter are not necessarily the opinion of Cetera Wealth Services, LLC and should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results. A diversified portfolio does not assure a profit or protect against loss in a declining market.